Wednesday, March 10, 2010

investing

Turmoil Ahead

It's been a while since I wrote about personal finances. We completed our quarterly financial review this week so a number of topics are fresh in my mind.

A few weeks back I wrote about a split society. So far, the Great Unwinding has crushed a few over-leveraged companies, banks and persons but it has not fundamentally altered the behavior of my peers. Our balance sheets, took a hit, we trimmed wasteful habits, we all had a collective freak-out... ...then... nothing, really.

It takes about three years for our collective memory about the "past" to shift. Do you remember the date of the sub-prime "shock"? August 2008 -- we are 18 months along our path with the New Normal.

Ask yourself:

  • How have your attitudes to investment return, risk, spending and leverage changed in the last 18 months?
  • If your attitudes continue their current trend then where will you be by August 2011?
  • Are the fundamentals of our economy supporting where your financial life is likely to be in August 2011?

Winners, Personal Finances and Inflation

Before my recent "change of circumstance", I spent quite a bit of time searching for the perfect combination of weather, 50-meter swimming pools and cycling routes. It was a fun game and I sure covered some ground!

One of the effects of looking for the perfect 'next year' is a distraction from enjoying 'this year'. As an athlete, I would focus on today's training and would spend a lot of time thinking about 'what's next'. This is a trap because constant forward thinking takes away from today's experience. While I still think about the future (more than most), the questions I ask myself have changed:

  • What's important now?
  • What do I want to do today?
  • Where am I spending my time?

When those questions are in harmony, I find my productivity, happiness and personal satisfaction are high.


I was down in Austin this past weekend and, before I arrived, I had written an outline of this piece. Spending a weekend at a HUGE triathlon race (Longhorn 70.3) helped drive home the observations that follow.

My peer group is, for the most part, triathletes and cyclists. While it might not always feel like it, we are a sub-group of the winners in Western Society.

This isn't a value statement. I don't mean that we are better than anyone. Rather I mean that society functions for the benefit of the sorts of people that are able to do LiveStrong rides and Longhorn Triathlons. Long ago, my fraternity brothers noted, "we are the people society is not out to get".

Racking my bike in T1 on Saturday I was intimidated (yes, I was scared) by all the $10,000 machines racked in my row. I saw those bikes as an expression of my own values - if I was going to spend ten grand of my own money then performance would have to REALLY matter to me. 24 hours later, I had a clearer view of what those bikes may have actually been saying.

Long Term Greedy

This week I thought that I'd share some ideas about maximizing expected value in the fields of athletics and personal finances.

When doing expected value calculations I like to remind myself of a few key points:

The Great Escape

This week's letter is going to focus on finance and the economy. As Bernakne says, we don't have the sensation that the economy is falling off the table anymore but I doubt we are close to being out of the woods. I'll explain why after I bring you up to speed on a few items that I wrote about previously.


Green Beret Challenge Update: Captain Weathersby (it's official, he's back in) and I did our APFT for the second time. I scored 276/300, which was much better than my first attempt but FIVE points short of my ranger buddy! I was dominated in the sit-ups and, despite a solid two-mile run, couldn't bridge the gap. Suppose that real Rangers do lead the way. I'm looking for a rematch around Memorial Day. You can follow my progress on my twitter page.

Not sure where my Ranger buddy will end up but if you, or a friend, might end up in Afghanistan then I highly recommend two books, The Seven Pillars of Wisdom and The Places In Between. Coming from a Western society, it is impossible for us to understand the baseline standard of living of our adversaries. My definition of suffering is above the Taliban's standard of living. Lawrence's book provides particularly good insights into a tribal society fighting a fluid war.

From The Outside Looking In

This past weekend, Team MonGo did our quarterly review of the family's finances. In the current environment, it has been tempting to keep track of things on a more frequent basis but... given the economic volatility, that would impair my enjoyment of life!

The trend that I want to create is a closing of the gap between my expenses and income. Right now, we are deficit spending - not quite at the rate of our national governments (!) but I'd like to stop eating into savings as soon as possible.

I'm conscious of the fact that we are fortunate to have savings to back us up. This most recent review provided empathy for folks that are struggling to cover their expenses. Watching your bank account tick down when you have a mortgage, young kids and are unsure about your job... that would be extremely tough.

Five years ago, I was living off a mortgage on my house in New Zealand. It's a weird situation to go into a bank, explain you work for a loss-making start up and would like to borrow money so you can get through the next year. I was able to sort myself out relatively quickly. I suspect it would be a very different conversation today.

Removing all personal guarantees and paying down my personal debts was the single best investment I made in the last five years - quite possibly my career. In the current market, I continue to believe that the best investment you can make is removal of personal debts, and reduction of net income deficits.

New Realities

Our photo this week is your author sitting on the top of Africa. Before I was ever a competitive athlete, I used to collect mountains. Fortunately, my hobby didn't kill me!

Getting It Wrong

This week I am going to share some ideas that will, hopefully, save you from a large financial loss at some stage in your life. Over the course of your life people will steal from, mislead and generally attempt to swindle you -- if you hit 50 and think that this has never happened to you then you might not have been paying attention!

Skill-based, achievable, wealth creation stems from two principles:
  • Spend less than you earn; and
  • Protect existing capital.
If you do those two points consistently then your net worth will rise over time. Sounds easy but it is seldom done effectively. There are always temptations to cut corners.

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