Revisting The Game

You will be able to find Part Four of my Understanding Intensity series over on the Training Peaks Blog from Tuesday.

This week saw a big event in the Byrn Household. I lifted my self-imposed travel ban. I had eliminated all travel that had a net negative cash impact on the family.

Banning my own travel didn't change the quality of my life but it did impair my cycling fitness! So... to get ready for Epic Camp New Zealand (sold out), Team MonGo will head down to Australia this winter.

Three camps that I'll be doing to prepare for Epic:

• Tour de RV -- a six-day bike focused camp, kicks off late September with Robbie Ventura
• St George Ironman Weekend -- three days on the course in early November, Coach KP will join me
• Coyote Cycling December Training Weekends -- some crazy miles with a bunch of Aussies. The two-day camps will give my body a mild dose of Petro-Pacing.

The first two camps are open to experienced athletes at all ability levels. The final camp (in Oz) will be pretty peppy in nature.

Contact me for more info.

This week I take a break from pontificating on athletic performance. Lately, I have been trying to figure out why my personal view of our economic situation is out of alignment with what the stock market is telling us. Here's what I have come up with:

Conservatism - I am conservative by nature and tend to be willing to "miss out" on deals. I think fear-of-missing-out is a HUGE motivator for many of us.

Barton Biggs notes in his book about the second world war that for a bear market to rise, things don't have to improve, they simply have to get less worse (or words to that effect). The US GDP numbers that came out today appear to be "less worse". BB also noted the bottoms happen at a time of maximum pessimism. Mood being an important driver.

So what about the mood? Brad Feld noted in his blog that there is a disconnect between what he sees and what the media is saying is happening. Generally, when the ground doesn't agree with the map, the map is wrong.

Now a cynic could say that there is an element of self-selection in Brad's world (a proxy for the New Economy's Masters of the Universe). That would be true but professional investors have plenty to concern them -- IF they choose to be concerned. Brad could be successfully applying a mantra of Relentless Positivity!

Culturally, we seem to "get used" to difficult conditions and re-calibrate expectations. That could be why Aspen hit me so hard a few weeks ago. I was experiencing stress from an upward re-calibration! My local peer group does a much better job at keeping me grounded.

I have been thinking about Brad's observations; what's been happening in our business; what the stock market is "saying"; as well as what I have been seeing in Boulder.

A few words on Boulder... our property market may be DEAD but we couldn't get a table downtown on a Wednesday night. So somebody is spending money (just not on real estate!). Brad's point is well made - the city is packed and people are spending.

I believe we are experiencing a tiered-recession that reflects two forces:

(i) a divided society between survivors and losers (as in left behind, not dorks). For example, if you survived the last 12 months reasonably intact then it feels pretty nice compared to your colleagues that were blown out the door (it's a rare business that didn't use the recession to clear out passengers).

(ii) the psychological phenomenon of relative happiness - "sure we've had to cut back but we didn't get hit as hard as GM, Bear Stearns, your friend who lost his job, the developer that lost his house..." The recession has lasted long enough that we share plenty of examples of people that took it even worse than us. I note how casual conversation has shifted dramatically from two years ago.

Here at Endurance Corner, I agree with Brad's view on his portfolio companies. Our business is on target and, I suspect, that we will reach capacity in a few months. The team is 90 athletes strong and we're going to cap at 100.

Personally, my family is still burning capital but...

(i) we are burning less capital;
(ii) I can see a way to cash neutrality; and
(iii) I feel like I am winning the game that I created.

This theme of "games" and "winning" that I come back to... Did you watch the Tour? What was most interesting to me is how Lance completely dominated the "game". He didn't win the race, but he crushed The Game. It was neat to see how well he plays - it takes tremendous self-control to play that well when deeply fatigued.

I've been thinking about my approach to life over the last decade and the #1 thing that stands out is following the "rules" as I saw them at the time. There could be something to that approach that you can apply within your own life - figuring out strategies that keep you engaged on a daily basis; enjoying the process; and not getting too caught up with your destination.

I've been working on My Personal Game for a long time (that link goes back nine years). A burning desire for outcome can get you out of bed in the morning but it can lock you up when performance truly matters.

Back next week,
gordo